"All Heart" ❤️
Best two of threePALM BEACH GARDENS, FL How did we get here..? Tiger's team was at the bottom of the TGL Season 2 preseason rankings. Their original odds were more than double those of the fifth-ranked team. To say nobody saw this coming is a massive understatement! The second-seeded Los Angeles Golf Club (4-2) will take on the fourth-seeded Jupiter Links Golf Club (3-2-1) in a best-of-three series to win the SoFi Cup. The matches start tonight at 9:00 pm ET on ESPN 2. Matches 2 and 3 (if needed) will be played tomorrow night at 7:00 pm and 9:00 pm ET on ESPN. Roll out the red carpet, TGL is about to cap Season 2 in historic fashion. Not even with Tiger Woods would Jupiter Links have been the favorite. Let's be honest, they still would not have been the fifth-ranked team! I love the match play madness, and this season has been fantastic. Six of the last 11 matches have been won by the underdog team. My eyes are wide open as both TGL Finals teams have a clear path to victory. The odds board would have you believe Los Angeles GC is the prohibitive favorite at -190 on DraftKings. Other books have the LAGC number as low as -130! TGL has done it; they have competitive parity and competitive chaos converging to decide the Sofi Cup. Los Angeles has won five of their last six matches, including a 6-4 win over the defending champions, Atlanta Drive GC. Jupiter Links GC comes into the SoFi Center tonight winning four of their last five matches, including a 9-5 win over the No. 1 playoff seed Boston Common Golf. Each of those matches would remind you more of March Madness than a simulator showdown. As the lower seed, Los Angeles has the honor in Match 1 tonight. TGL has only released the lineup cards for Monday. Teams hold the right to make changes, as if Collin Morikawa were to get healthy, Akshay Bhatia returns from India, or Tiger Woods decides to play. Wait what? I wouldn't get your hopes up. The courses?In Season 1, the SoFi Cup Finals implemented two different courses. One course was used for matches 1 and 3, and a second collection of 15 holes for Match 2. I imagine they use the same format for Season 2, but we have not been informed of their plans. (Sigh). Finals course number one is 5,808 yards long. As we start predicting who will pick up the Cup, I don't believe there is much of an edge for either team in this layout. Both of these teams are accurate off the tee and scramble equally. Jupiter Links hits more GIRs, and that will help, but when it comes down to it, the TGL format(s) is going to decide who wins the SoFi Cup. There are seven new Season 2 holes and eight from Season 1. Uniquely enough, all eight from Season 1 were used in the card for Matches 1 and 3 of last year's Finals. We all love the additions from Season 2, but the leftover assortment is quite good. A number of the holes from year one are great risk-reward holes like Temple or Loot on the Line. Then there are a couple of tough ones like Alpine. Officials went easy on the par 3s; four of the five one-shot holes are under 170 yards! Match 1 starting lineups and SoFi Cup Finals breakdownFinals - Matches 1, 2, 3 (if needed)The format of play is going to decide this championship tussle. Los Angeles GC is a better Triples team. LAGC is ranked second in alternate shot holes won with 18 and points won with 20. Jupiter Links is not far behind, and that is an important key. Getting off to a solid start with early points gives you a huge Hammer advantage. The chaser must be more aggressive and double down more often to catch up. If JLGC can tie LAGC after nine holes, that is their path to victory. JLGC is better at putts inside 10'. That stat is always key when a player walks in after not hitting a shot on a hole and must make a putt from 8' to win or tie. LA's loss of Morikawa comes up big here. Sahith Theegala will have to hit driver on a couple of difficult holes (Loot on the Line, Showtime, and Cenote). Cenote is the 264-yard par 3 where he missed the entire ramp in an earlier regular-season tilt. Jupiter Links GC has owned Singles play over the last month. They have scored a total of 15 points on the H2H holes in their last three matches! Max Homa has not lost a Singles H2H in those three tilts, going 6-0. Jupiter Links is first in H2H holes won with 11 and points won with 16! Most fans probably think that's Akshay Bhatia leading the way for those points; it's not. Max Homa leads the league in Singles points, and Kevin Kisner is tied third. In the late stages of these matches, JLGC finds a way to win. LAGC is bringing a better lineup to the Finals, and the series is best two out of three. Does that give the better OWGR team an advantage? In normal golf, yes, but this is far from traditional stroke play. Since Jupiter Links has taken the Hammer away from Tiger, they score plenty of points in those flag-down situations. For Jupiter Links, tie the alternate shot, and attack in Singles. Use the Hammer as you have been, and you win two of these matches. Los Angeles must figure out when to double down. LAGC was the second-worst Hammer team in the regular season. Nobody declined more Hammers (that's bad), and their point differential after the five regular-season matches was -4. Jupiter Links GC, on the other hand, led the League in Hammers Thrown (15) and Hammers Won (11). In Season 1, JLGC was horrific in Hammer moments. In Season 2, they figured it out. JLGC went from five points off Hammers to 17! What is even more significant, they got their opponents to accept the Hammer 80% of the time. That's the goal: to double down. When you force your opponent to accept, you increase the level of pressure on the other team. Hammers are a huge part of winning in TGL, and JLGC has been using them to near perfection.
Jupiter Links Golf Club is on an incredible run. They are closer to the Los Angeles GC in Triples scoring than LAGC is to JLGC in Singles. For that reason and the HAMMER, I believe they will pull off the upset and win the SoFi Cup. A couple of books have a much lower number than DraftKings for Jupiter Links. Make sure you shop around today and get the best value. It should be a nice plus number, which will only increase our win when they capture the SoFi Cup! Betting card - Match Winners* - Odds can change from site to site. Make sure you shop around before making each bet. Even though a bet is listed, it may have changed since the newsletter was published. FanDuel (FD), Caesars (CS), DraftKings (DK), BetMGM (BM), bet365 (B3), Bet Rivers (BR), Fanatics (FN) Do you want to be a better bettor?Become a member of Read The Line today!
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