Return to Royal Troon

Let's not waste time talking about last week. Three outrights in the top 4 at the Scottish Open and we're onto Royal Troon for the tenth time. The 152nd Open Championship is the fourth and final major championship of the season. Say good-bye to the LIV golfers after this week. They literally have four events left and you know none of them are going to get invited to the Presidents Cup matches in September. Imagine a world where Bryson DeChambeau finishes top 10 in all four majors, wins the US Open, and doesn't play for the American side. What is golf doing..? Alas as I started, let's all move on.

Royal Troon has awarded four straight first time major championship winners dating back to Mark Calcavecchia in 1989. An amazing seaside links layout, this par 71 test at 7,385 yards is one of the most unique courses in the Open rota. We last visited Royal Troon's Old Course in 2016. It was a historic duel between Henrik Stenson and Phil Mickelson. The two staged one of the most memorable Sunday's in major championship history. I recommend you go back and watch the highlights online. Not only will it give you a great idea of the course challenges, but it will also inspire you in advance of 2024's last major.

The Open starts in...

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Six - six - six

Troon's par 71 championship scorecard has gained 195 yards since 2016. Nine tee boxes have been updated or added across the course. The routing is still what makes it special. The first six holes run southeast along the shoreline. Adjacent to the Firth of Clyde, these first six predominantly play downwind and create a concentration of holes where low rounds get started quickly. Over the next six holes, players change direction five times. Included in that group is the famous "Postage Stamp" par 3 eighth. A 123 yard wedge shot, the 2,635 sq/ft green is surrounded by five brutal bunkers. One the most famous par 3s in all of the British Isles, fortunes will be won and lost should you miss this very tiny target.

The closing six holes take us back to the clubhouse. Now running northwest, all six holes play into the prevailing wind on property. Much tougher than the first six out, here is where the Champion Golfer of the Year will be crowned. Keep an eye on the two 200+ yard par 3s, 500 yard par 4 fifteenth, and entertaining par 5 sixteenth. During the duel with Mickelson, Stenson went birdie, birdie, birdie on 14, 15, and 16. That three hole stretch took control of the championship and he never looked back taking home the Claret Jug. When watching The Open, be prepared for everyone to start out strong. Rounds will be measured by the closing stretch. So be happy if you're up early, but don't turn off the television until the back nine is complete.

The weather always plays a role in The Open. One of the reasons Phil and Henrik were able to separate themselves was their tee time draw. They caught great weather the first two days and took advantage with incredible play. Currently, the forecast looks “okay” for the Championship. Rain is predicted all four rounds, but instead of a windy, wild mess it should just be wet. Temperatures are forecasted in the low 60s. The wind tops out on Sunday at 16mph. Rain is currently on the radar all day Thursday, Friday later, and Saturday and Sunday throughout the day. I currently do not see a tee time wave advantage. That all could change in the next 24 hours, but as of Wednesday morning eastern time, that's what we know.

🚨Betting alert - Make sure you place all of your bets by Wednesday night. The Open Championship is five hours ahead of the United States eastern time zone (New York City).

Remember, Read The Line comes with a direct link (above) to the real-time weather in Troon. I'm using Prestwick Airport's weather station. Outside of the R & A's own equipment, this is the most reliable station within a mile of the club. Conditions were tough back in 2016 and the cut to the top 70 and ties was +4. All of my sources across the Atlantic on property report ideal scoring conditions on the ground. Hit the fairway and you'll be able to make birdies. Green surfaces are receptive to approaches of all lengths, and the rough is thick, but fair. Missing the fairway will not involve wiregrass roulette like Pinehurst. Players will pay a price for inaccuracy off the tee.

The average pre-tournament odds of the last 10 winners of The Open are +5600. With all 50 of the top 50 in the OWGR scheduled to compete, there's a very good chance our winner could come out of that mid-range. The Open is my favorite major. I love setting an alarm for the middle of the night to watch golf in the dark. Something about watching the sunrise while the best in the world compete on what looks like a foreign planet is extremely inspiring as a golfer and fan. Enjoy the theater, because unless you're an avid viewer of the CW, Bryson, Brooks, and Rahm won't be seen again until next year. Whatever that looks like..?

Read The Line recap 🗞️ Brian Harman took control of the 151st Open Championship on Friday with a second round 65. He built a five shot lead and never looked back ultimately winning by six strokes on Sunday. Harman captured the Claret Jug with accuracy off the tee and an incredible putter. Brian bested the field with his flatstick by over 11 strokes! Follow that formula again and you'll be contending come Sunday.

Priority mail

Augusta National, Valhalla, and Pinehurst all placed false images of what accuracy means in a major championship into our heads. Of course, Augusta has no rough and wide fairways. Rarely do we ever see world class players punching out of trouble down Magnolia Lane. The PGA played out like a next level birdiefest, and the penalty for missing the fairway at the US Open was a random draw of possible outcomes. Royal Troon will require you to hit the fairway. Play aggressively off the tee and you may be rewarded. Should those deep drives find the long grass, there will be bogeys. I have four player priorities to focus on this week and keeping the ball in play off the tee is one of them.

The second skill is a complementary approach game. These aren't ranked in order, and all carry the same significance. Players must be able to knock it near the pin from under 100 yards and over 200 yards. Possessing a split personality of iron play acumen is required to make sub-par scores on Troon's Old Course. Just look at the opening stretch of holes. Four birdie opportunities, all with a very short wedge shot in. It will be windy and wet along the shore. Controlling spin and trajectory in those conditions is a challenge even at those limited distances. The best scramblers will eat those holes up against the competition.

We talked about approach (lag) putting at length last week. Players will take the flatstick out all over Troon. Skill with a putter will be a very important advantage most will overlook as Troon's greens are not nearly as complicated as other more "protected" rota venues. The greens are soft and receptive by all reports. That also means that they are slower than PGA TOUR greens in the United States. Look at the players who putt well overseas. They struggle on faster, more difficult surfaces. I have a couple average putters on my card just for this reason. These players thrive when they don't have to worry about 13 on the Stimpmeter.

Open experience counts. The Genesis Scottish Open leaderboard was very similar to Scottish Opens of past years. Some guys just enjoy playing creative golf. Their brains aren't challenged enough by a basic birdiefest where you point and shoot on TPC tracks. Pinehurst and Augusta National would make you think in a similar way. Don't be surprised if you see similar leaderboards to those major championships. Partly because those players are competing at a high level, but also because when the game gets hard, the best ball strikers and short game artists believe in themselves enough to take calculated risks in order to differentiate themselves from the field.

Looking through that Open Championship lens, we have to consider other secondary skills. Troon has 11 par 4s. They vary in length from 366 to 502 yards. Scoring on all types of 4s will be an incredible asset. Bogey avoidance in major championships is always a consideration in majors. Getting up and down around these greens or scoring from close range all counts. Troon sits right along the sea. As such, these are some of the deepest and most penal bunkers these guys will see in an Open Championship. The postage stamp has one called "the coffin!" Go in there and your round might be dead. Thankfully, we also live in an age where we can measure the best players in bad weather.

Yes, that's a definite consideration. It might rain throughout 75% of this championship. If that's the case, some players might just mail it in on attitude alone. Imagine you're struggling with your swing and it's raining. I'll go practice at home in Florida. Players don't always see situations as we do. While we covet any opportunity to play a "Royal" venue, they just might not. All of our outrights are seriously trending in a positive direction. They have played great over the last two months and can win this week. Toss in a little MacIntyre luck and who knows, we might just have another major winner at RTL.

Outright Winners - The Open Championship

We are doing it. I'm going to ride the Rory McIlroy roller coaster at Royal Troon. McIlroy has five top 10s in seven starts at The Open since winning in 2014 at Royal Liverpool. In his last 13 major starts, Rory has nine top 10s. He's the most consistent major performer of the last six years. Since the two wins prior to the PGA, McIlroy has gone 12-4-15-2-4. Rory McIlroy +800

Tony Finau has gained positively with his putter in three straight events, and we all know that's very meaningful. The ball striking has been elite, only Scottie, Xander, and Rory have better T2G numbers than Finau in recent months. An underrated short game player, Tony is gaining three strokes per start on the field. He has five top 18 finishes in a row. Finau has been good in The Open. In seven starts, he has six top 30 finishes. Tony Finau +5000

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Inside the ropes at the 2023 Genesis Invitational

Time for Toledo

From the beautiful shores of Lake Léman in France, we head to Toledo, Ohio. The LPGA truly is a global tour. The schedule design once again amazes me, but nonetheless we return to the Dana Open where Linn Grant turned in a wonderful RTL winning performance by three strokes and earning us a +2200 ticket! One of 14 outright predictions in 2023, Grant finished T26 at Evian last week with a couple rounds in the 60s. The talented Swede only has two top 10s this season so I imagine she's looking forward to a Dana return. One of those strong finishes came four weeks ago at the KPMG Women's PGA (T9). Sahalee is an extreme parkland style layout and one that should inspire more fine play on behalf of the defending champion.

For the thirty-fourth year, Highland Meadows Golf Club is our host in Sylvania, Ohio. A par 71 layout that covers 6,666 yards, 111 yards were added to the course since last year's tournament. The course changes should help slow down the scoring. The average winning total over the past five years is 19 under par. In 2021, Nasa Hataoka won with a total of 19 under par and she only played 54-holes! The tournament was shortened that year due to weather. This becomes a bit of a birdiefest and those who can really score on parkland style layouts tend to dominate the leaderboard landscape.

Dana Open starts in...

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We have three par 5s and six par 4s under 400 yards. Those nine holes are a great place to start when it comes to scoring. The finish is unique at Highland Meadows. Holes 17 and 18 are both par 5s. An exciting finish to an above average layout has caused some drama over the years. There have been 11 playoffs at the Dana in the 34 years contested at HMGC. One third of events ended in sudden death. We haven't seen one since 2018 so I wouldn't be surprised to witness extra holes this year. I doubt anyone would mind as the forecast looks outstanding for golf. The ladies may dodge a couple of rain showers during the practice rounds, but Thursday through Sunday looks amazing for golf.

Those few showers should soften the course for scoring. Temperatures are predicted in the high 70s, low 80s. Here's the fun part, the women will have little to no wind to deal with. Quite the contrast in conditions the men will be suffering through at Troon! With wind in the single digits and beautiful skies, I fully expect there to be a run at the scoring title of 23 under par set by Se Ri Pak back in 1998. Sixty-eight bunkers and 10 holes where water comes into play will not slow down the world's best women. A field of 142 players is set in Toledo to compete for $1.75 million and a first place prize of $262,500. Only seven of the top 40 in the Rolex Rankings made the trip from France so LPGA knowledge will be a tremendous asset. We grabbed a Grant win last year the week after the US Open, what's to say we cannot do it again following this year's fourth major championship.

Let me see you go low

Looking back at our outright card from last year, a wry smile comes to my face. Of course we had Linn Grant, but we also touted Haeran Ryu and Lauren Coughlin. Ryu is the betting favorite in the field alongside Linn and Lauren Coughlin had a chance to win the Evian on Sunday finishing fourth. Diving deep into the LPGA pays off and we are primed to pull out another winner. Handicapping Highland Meadows is all about scoring. Who can create the most chances? To win, one woman will need to hole over 20 sub-par scores. HMGC is a wonderful parkland layout so the test begins off the tee.

Linn Grant is one of the best drivers on tour. She gained over five strokes against the field with her driver.That set her up for an awesome approach week where she gained another eight strokes! Her Saturday 62 differentiated her and ultimately gave Linn the win.

You need amazing approach play to create that many birdie chances. Iron play ranks number one in the major strokes play categories when it comes to scoring at HMGC. The last two leaderboard top 10s gained an average of four strokes on the field on approach. We don't have many long holes here. Hitting good solid mid-range scoring shots will get it done.

The second largest gains in the field by the top 10 from 2022 and 2023 came with the putter. Players gained another four strokes there as well. That's eight strokes in two categories you can gain on the field by hitting it close and converting. Seven of the top 10 finishers one year ago gained over two strokes with their flatstick. These greens are average in size at 5,000 sq/ft and covered in a standard Poa Bentgrass mix we see up north. The course is in great shape and suitable for making a ton of putts.

Over the last 10 years, the winners have played 39 rounds. The 2021 edition was shortened to 54-holes. Of those winning rounds, only five have been 70 or higher. In the last five years, only two rounds were outside the 60s, and both of those were a 70. Get ready to go low. For those coming from the Evian, it will seem normal. Ayaka Furue won on Sunday with a 19 under par total. Another secret to scoring success in Sylvania are the par 3s. Looking again at the top of the last two leaderboards, those women averaged 2.8 on the par 3s. It may not sound like much, but that's lower than usual. The scoring average is almost always 3.0 even at the top of the leaderboard. You'll find success come Sunday if you can score on the short holes. Grant cruised to victory by going five under on the 3s.

Another advantage for the Evian competitors, they faced five par 3s each round during the championship. Eleven par 4s dominate the Highland Meadows scorecard. As mentioned, six of them are under 400 yards. Grant went 13 under on the 4s last year. Everyone will score on the par 5s. That's par for this event, but capitalize on the 3s and 4s and you will find yourself in the thick of it come Sunday.

Outright winners - Dana Open

At 25 years old, Esther Henseleit is having a career year. In four major championships this season, Henseleit has finished top 15 in three of them. Last week, she ranked second T2G in the field at the Evian Championship. Her path to winning is the same as Linn a year ago. Attack HMGC with her power and putting. Henseleit finished sixteenth last year at the Dana and fourth in 2021. She knows the course and plays it well. Esther Henseleit +2800

In her last two starts at the HMGC, Sarah Schmelzel finished fourth and twelfth. Schmelzel has gained an average of nine strokes on the field in her last two starts here. Sarah already has five top 10 finishes in 15 starts this season. That's very good for a 50-1 player. Schmelzel is a top 10 player T2G in this field, and proved it by finishing ninth at the KPMG Women's PGA last month. Sarah Schmelzel +5000

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