And so we begin the most challenging time of year from a betting perspective. In the next three weeks, the PGA Tour will compete on eight different golf courses. Starting this week at The American Express, the men will play the following:
The 156 competitors will play one round on each course with their Pro-Am partner. After 54 holes, there will be a cut to the Top 70 and ties. Those seventy will play on Sunday at Pete Dye's Stadium Course. The Amex has an elite field this year.
Those elite five in the Top 10 will need birdies to keep pace with the contenders. Known as a "putting contest," the average winning score over the past ten years is 24 under par. Interestingly enough, the average winner's odds over that same time period is +14300 (143-1). Three of the last four winners have had pre-tournament odds greater than +20000 (200-1)!
La Quinta, Nicklaus and Stadium Course play as three of the easiest courses on tour. The rough is pretty much dormant and the greens average 5,600 square feet across all three. This leaves plenty of target space for these guys to take dead aim. Check out these scoring statistics:
The only challenge they may face this week will be a little unseasonal weather. Each night the temperatures are predicted to fall into the 30's. The highs each afternoon will only reach the high 60's. Maybe if you have cold hands it may hurt your chances of making seven or eight birdies a round? It's the desert, so no rain is in the forecast and thankfully with these temperatures, little wind as well. Most days the breeze will only top out at 7-8 mph.
Tournaments on tour like the AMEX are flagged by many players. They routinely have six hour Pro-Am rounds and marginal play by the amateurs. Certain players thrive in this environment versus others. I use historic play at this event and Pebble Beach as a final barometer for selecting outrights. Enjoy the entertainment, getting five of the Top 10 together without an elevated purse is impressive. Hopefully the drama come Sunday is equal to the lead up.
|
AMEX on TV:
|
Unlimited spending on birdies
The best way to tackle an event with three different courses, unlimited birdie opportunities and mild conditions is to take the player-coach mentality. If we were competing this week, how do we get to twenty-five under par against Jon Rahm? As I looked through the courses and started to put together a game plan as an actual coach, it started to come into focus.
There's a direct correlation to SG:APP and SG:Putt when it comes to contending here. Nine of the last ten winners gained strokes on approach and all ten gained in putting. In fact, when you take it a little deeper...
How do we build a great approach plan for the AMEX? Most of the target yardages into the greens will be in the short iron to wedge category. Second shots on Par 5's will require a mid to long iron, but more than 45% of the irons in will be under 150 yards. Proximity to the hole and creating birdie opportunities come from great iron play. Scrambling is another category depicting wedge play from inside 75 yards. With a dozen or so Par 4's under 400 yards these players better be good at pitching the ball close.
Once they get to the green, putting becomes the second biggest differentiator.
The best proximity players are going to pepper the ten to fifteen foot range from the hole. Anyone who can excel this week making the most putts in that "opportunity" range will separate themselves. History has clearly shown us players get streaky and win. Hudson Swafford gained over four strokes on approach and over six on the greens en route to winning. Our game plan this week is to attack. Par 5 scoring will be low for every contender. Par 3 scoring seems to quietly be a key for recent winners. Most of these shots are a little longer and have danger lurking. The best finishers have played the Par 3's well.
The basics of great Par 4 scoring have already been described. Our winner will have leading iron play and a hot putter. They will destroy the Par 5's and most of all create easy scoring chances from the short yardage pitching situations. Here's my list of awesome iron players and prolific putters for The American Express.
Tony Finau (+1500)
Pick 2* (+6000)
Pick 3* (+6600)
Ben Griffin (+15000)
*- member content
For the Member Only picks - CLICK HERE & SUBSCRIBE |
The Hilton Grand Vacations Tournament of Champions will be played again this year at Lake Nona Golf and Country Club. The course opened in 1987. From hosting the Solheim Cup in 1990 to the season opening tournament of champions now, this 600 acre super facility has always supported women's golf. Home to many touring professionals this unique Tom Fazio design is a wonderful test of shaping the ball off the tee and precise iron play.
Twenty-nine ladies are assembled to play. To qualify, you must have won a tournament once in the last two seasons. To add some style to the competition, professional athletes and celebrities are paired with the ladies in a Pro-Am format. Orlando has plenty of stars and this player addition really draws attention to the season opener. Last year MLB pitcher Derek Lowe defeated Nona resident Annika Sörenstam in a playoff!
Last year the weather was pretty awful for the event. Predictions for this edition look much more favorable with temperatures in the high 70's and low 80's most of the week. There's a small chance of rain on Sunday and the wind is mild. That's good news as "Lake" Nona is surrounded by water. That open territory can build some serious wind when it blows and really challenge you. The calm weather and player familiarity with the course in year two will push the winning score to twenty under par.
Danielle Kang is back to defend her title. She's a strong iron player and consistent performer in Florida. By analyzing her 2022 victory, I have found a couple of very specific keys this year's field will need to contend again. Keep reading past the timer and see our outrights for the LPGA season opener.
|
HGV TOC on TV:
|
Annika's house
I cannot count the number of times I have played Lake Nona. One of Fazio's first solo designs, this central Florida course community breaks many of the Sunshine State stereotypes. Although houses surround most of the course, in many cases, the best lake front property belongs to the links. As such, the elements can play a role as you navigate the course. Last year's leaderboard tells a story of power and accuracy. The weather was brutal in 2022. Fifty degree temperatures and sustained winds were a definite challenge.
Power helped in those challenging conditions, and I believe will be an even bigger asset in this edition. I create my own LPGA research charts and this week's table started with off the tee play. The second attribute needed to contend on Annika's home course is great approach skill. Fazio does an exquisite job of making each player uses their entire bag. From pitching to hybrids, these ladies will need some serious iron accuracy.
Here's why I love the longer hitters. They will consistently be playing from the front half of that range. That's a huge advantage, because Lake Nona has smaller size greens by Florida standards. It reminds me of a northern layout. This is why it sticks out as a must play place in Orlando. Speaking of those greens, Fazio gave them plenty of movement. So putting becomes a requirement as well. The course is in epic shape. I walked all eighteen holes on Tuesday and the LPGA has a fantastic event set up for the women.
The Par 5's are very score-able and the Par 3's are severe. So the Par 4's become the biggest differentiator toward total score. The careful combination of driving ability and approach savvy allow for a perfect opportunity to distance yourself. The average Par 4 is well under 400 yards (387). Seven of the ten Par 4's have a significant turn off the tee. Six of the seven move left to right so it favors a right-handed fader.
The LPGA played five events in Florida last season. I looked at the results of each one. My personal chart breaks down the best on Bermudagrass. The ladies seem to be even more territorial than the men when it comes to favorite grasses. That's the final edge I took into consideration to give you these three great outright bets for the kickoff event.
Celine Boutier (+1600)
Pick 2* (+2500)
Pick 3* (+2800)
*- member content
Did you know we offer?LPGA & PGA Tour DFS LineupsOne and Done selectionsH2H MatchupsProp and Placement Bets
|
We predicted 3 of 4 in-play and 60% total on prop bets for the Sony!
Head right to our website and join! Read The Line.
DISCLAIMER: Read The Line provides information and insights concerning the game of golf, aimed at creating more intelligent sports fans. Read The Line does not seek to encourage any of our readers, members or users to engage in sports betting or otherwise make wagers based on the information and insights provided. Any betting or wagers made by readers, members or users are undertaken at their own risk and such activity does not give rise to any legal responsibility on the part of Read The Line. For more information, please refer to our Terms of Use and Privacy Policy.
Think you have a gambling problem? Reach out for help. Read The line promotes responsible gaming. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER or visit these online resources:
Golf Analysis, Birdie Banter, and Bonafide Insights Every Week. As a subscriber to Read The Line, you'll elevate your sports knowledge.
Matt McCarty with his fourth win in 10 starts! Back in black The PGA TOUR heads two hours southwest to the Las Vegas strip. The Shriners Children's Open is the fourth event of the FedEx Cup Fall. A mainstay on the annual fall schedule for some time, two-time defending champion Tom Kim heads to sin city in search of his third straight win at TPC Summerlin. The betting favorite by far, Kim is the only competitor with odds under +2500. I address Kim's chances in my Monday Odds Drop article, and...
Look at this place! Brand new Two hours northeast of Las Vegas in southwest Utah sits a stunning setting of red rock mountains overlooking beautiful black lava fields. The Black Desert Championship is a new event on the schedule and if this landscape is any precursor of the competition, it should be very entertaining. Designed by Tom Weiskopf and Phil Smith, the course opened in 2023. Not only is this a new event, but this is a brand-new course. In many ways, it fits the fall. We always see...
What a week in Montreal! FedEx Fall continues... If you ever get a chance to attend a team match in golf, seize the opportunity. Royal Montreal Golf Club was a worthy layout, and the International Team shocked us all on Friday. Tony Finau and Scottie Scheffler were sent in Friday night to explain the 0-5 sweep and their inner confidence shined through the immediate storyline. Finau finished by saying, "he believes in the guys, and they will get the job done." With 10 members (of 12) on their...