Curtain call

Incredible win by Jackson Koivun at the 3M Open. Carding a bogey-free five under par 66 with the world's best hunting you down shows true grit. I think we should celebrate this win with a ton of enthusiasm. It has been a minute (or two) since we have seen a great young American golf star. Before you anoint him the next Scottie Scheffler, I'll ask you to consider a couple of comparisons. Matt Wolff won in his third professional start. Wolff also recorded five wins that year in college and a national championship with Oklahoma State. That first win was coincidentally the 2019 3M Open. Matt never won again as a professional. I'm not trying to rain on Koivun's parade, but golf is really hard. The amount of side bend Jackson uses at impact reminds me of Will Zalatoris. What we saw on Sunday was truly special, and we should hold that moment in perspective. We're going to hear about the Presidents Cup team (and more) over the next week or two. A top 10 in his next start would be a great follow-up. Let's leave it at that and hope our next young superstar makes the playoffs.
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Koivun and a majority of the 3M field head to Detroit, Michigan, for the Rocket Classic. Brooks Koepka was in the field and pushed the total to 145. Koepka WD'd Tuesday, but n ot after allowing three extra players to get in. Nice work! The top 65 and ties advance to the weekend where they can play for $10 million. A cool $1.8 million for first, the Rocket is the second-to-last regular season event before the playoffs. With Koivun's win, Jackson jumped to number 70 in the season-long rankings. A special number, only the top 70 make the FedEx Cup playoffs. This is the eighth year the TOUR travels to Detroit Golf Club; and could be the last. Reports from our friends like Josh Carpenter (Sports Business Journal) have Rocket Mortgage ending their sponsorship in 2026. Can a new presenting sponsor jump in and save the event? Yes. The reality is it will become a second-tier tournament in 2028. All of this comes together as one of golf's great ironies. Detroit Golf Club closed after the final putt dropped at the 2025 Rocket Classic. A $16 million renovation ensued, and much of the venue has been updated. Well, at least they get one year out of it...

Rocket Classic starts in...

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Did you know?

Detroit Golf Club is a 36-hole golf facility near downtown Detroit. The championship course takes 17 holes from the North Course and one hole from the South. If you're curious about the routing, here's a quick breakdown.

• Front Nine: Hole 1 (North 8), Hole 2 (N9), Hole 3 (South 1), Hole 4 (N2), Hole 5 (N3), Hole 6 (N4), Hole 7 (N5), Hole 8 (N6), Hole 9 (N7)
• Back Nine: Holes 10 - 18 (North 10 - 18)

I doubt you recall, but this was a par 72 scorecard measuring 7,370 yards in 2025. One of the easiest courses on the PGA TOUR in each of its previous seven editions, we all are wondering if the renovation will make a difference. After all, we saw what $25 million did for TPC Craig Ranch. Wyndham Clark was held to 30 under par after Scottie Scheffler finished at 31 under par the year before. The average winning score at the Rocket Classic is 22 under par. The new tournament scorecard features a par 70 layout. The two easiest holes (7 and 17) have been changed from a par 5 to a par 4. That will definitely change scoring, but will it change the scoring average? Probably not. As we dig deeper into the updates, you will see why, but first, the forecast.

All 18 green complexes have been touched. The $16 million renovation covered the tee boxes, bunkers, greens, and a bunch of tree removal. Much like the renovation at East Lake, the course is probably easier for the PGA TOUR and far more enjoyable for the DGC membership. Like so many classic golden age Donald Ross designs, the greens have shrunk substantially over time. That process of compaction limits the number of hole locations officials can utilize. By expanding all of the greens and returning them to their original surface area, you open up far more challenging hole locations. Players may hit more GIRs, but proximity is the key. Moving the fairway bunkers to accommodate for modern distance should help protect par. Do I believe these changes will significantly limit scoring? No. The winner will likely be 16 to 18 under par.
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The greens were not the only areas that went under expansion in this renovation. Many of the fairways were widened and trees removed. You can argue approach angles and architecture all day, but when 21-year-old superstars are hitting approach shots on par 5s from 300+ yards, please keep these changes in perspective. From my research, the most interesting aspect of the changes is on the ground. Many of the green complexes have been surrounded with slopes and collection areas. When you consider the brand-new green surfaces will be bouncy, and the pins will be tucked, the result will be a larger emphasis on scrambling. I'm not suggesting that bogey avoidance is more important than BoB%, but it will play a role. Be prepared for players complaining about the new surfaces. Will these updates make a significant difference? My initial reaction is no. Scoring will be higher, but only because the par changed. Many of the outright skills we feature will be the same. The changes may increase or decrease their impact slightly, but this is still fundamentally the same test.

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How to

Brand new green complexes have turned what is normally an approach fest into an approach test. With six par 4s over 470 yards, two par 3s over 200+, and the two par 5 second shots, we now have 10 crucial scoring shots with a mid to long iron in play. Wedges will allow you to make birdies; your 5 iron is going to keep you from making bogeys! With the fresh greens, those long irons become even more impactful. A well-struck shot will make a huge difference. Detroit Golf Club will still require elite scoring shots from 125 yards and in to keep pace, but I love the changes leading to the use of these longer irons. Don't get me wrong, guys will still make sub-par scores, but the separation ability is far greater on approach. When you consider the top-heavy nature of this field, better players will differentiate themselves. DGC used to be a venue where long shots were in the mix. I believe we will see far less of that this week. Can a 50-1 (or greater) player win? Yes. These guys have that much talent, but overall the top 20 is going to be filled with more names we know.

Length will help the long iron situation. By removing a couple hundred trees, widening fairways, and keeping the rough fair, bombers still have an edge at Detroit Golf Club. If anything, the advantage may have increased. Not only will the longest hitters still be able to carry many of the corners and fairway bunkers, but they also hit a higher lofted iron on approach. That double whammy is really what has played out in the past, and I see it happening even more with the updates. Michael Brennan and Jake Knapp fans enjoy the show because these two and their ball speed buddies are going to let the shaft out! Truth be told, it wouldn't surprise me at all to see a similar leaderboard to last week at the 3M. Players used drivers 86% of the time last year at DGC, and the course holds a very low penalty for missing the fairway. Run in back with those who excelled off the tee in Minnesota and you'll be in the hunt.

Around the green skill ranks as the fourth most important of the primary strokes gained skills at the Rocket for the seven previous winners. I'm placing short game ahead of putting. New greens are impossible to predict, and many of the past winners are no Denny McCarthy. It takes a couple of years for the surfaces to settle, and until then, subtle breaks will give you an unexpected roll from time to time. Chipping and pitching can be predicted and will be put into use far more than we have seen historically at DGC. Thankfully, these guys won't have to worry much about grain around the green, but there will be some awkward lies. With the increase in green size, new hole locations will create a number of short-sided situations. With history telling the field you MUST score, the players will point and shoot. By taking on every pin, the guys will give themselves a couple of tough up and downs. I have placed far more emphasis on scrambling this year than previous Rocket editions.

I'm picking trending putters. No need to dig deeper there, much like the 3M. If a player is coming in gaining on the field with his flatstick in recent weeks, he's on my radar. Rather than write more about bonus putting, here are a couple of other considerations I'm focused on. First is par 4 scoring. With the array of 4s DGC now has, playing the 4s well under par is very important, especially when you consider two more were added versus last year. I also love to look at birdie to bogey ratio on weeks such as this. Yes, we want players who can effectively score, but not at the risk of making a bunch of bogeys. You're going to see a number of middle-tier contenders make these mistakes on 500+ yard par 4s. Think back to last week. Bogeys kill scoring momentum. It sounds obvious, but so many times, bettors only select players who make a ton of birdies, and they fail to consider the scoring ratio. Detroit Golf Club is going to give these guys a couple of challenges, and players who maintain a positive scoring ratio are essential to a winning card.

Most of those players sit at the top of the odds board. Finding the correct value guy takes a little extra research. It starts by studying the layout and understanding which players really fit the layout from a ball striking perspective. Many of the tighter driving holes favor a little left to right movement OTT. Power definitely helps, but your natural shot shape gives you an even bigger edge. The update added 15 bunkers. Although some of them are purely cosmetic, many of the 102 total now come much more into play. The best par 70 scorers find ways to make sub-par scores without par 5s. Avid RTL readers know, I always break down those who are best when the par is lowered two strokes. With nine of the top 25 in the OWGR playing, any outright pick must be able to beat the likes of Gotterup, Young, and Schauffele. No easy task, but after a deep dive into the new layout, and a comprehensive search of the stat boards, here's our outright card for the Rocket.

Outright Winners - Rocket Classic

LPGA

Scottish surprise

Ten years after her first LPGA victory at the 2016 Volunteers of America Texas Shootout, Jenny Shin took home her second trophy. An impressive win in Scotland where just 10 players finished under par, and many stars got swept away along the western coast. With three outrights in the final top 19, we remain close and continue to contend week after week on both tours. Shin has had a decent record across the pond, but at +15000 (and longer) to start the week, congrats on earning a second career win a decade later.
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Much like the men three weeks ago, the women will travel from the shores of Scotland to the western coast of England for the AIG Women’s Open. Ten miles north of Royal Birkdale, the conclusion of this major championship season has a small feel of redundancy to it. Two famous English shoreline links layouts will conclude the men's and women's major seasons. The entire top 10 of the Rolex World Rankings are in the field. Much like the men, the women have been here before; five times in fact and all of them inside the last 30 years. The history of the Open Championship goes back far more than a century. The Women's Open? This is their 50th edition. Coming back to these historic links in Lancashire sets the tone for what will be a great major to close the 2026 season.

A par 3?

Every eight to 10 years (or so), we return to Royal Lytham and St. Annes, and we all have the same immediate recollection: this is the place that starts with a par 3! Yes, the par 71 scorecard this week begins with a 180-yard par 3. As a par 71, we add an extra par 4 and remove one of the par 5s, totaling 6,601 yards for the championship. I think what I love most about links golf is the architects’ ability to use what was given to them. There are so many American courses on the PGA TOUR that feel as if the plans were laid out prior to seeing the setting. Two weeks ago at Royal Birkdale, the men did not play a par 5 until the 14th hole. At Royal Lytham and St. Annes, the three par 5s are done by the 11th! A masterpiece of eclectic par 4s, the course closes with six in a row. Each different than the other, you can bet we will be tracking par 4 scoring. Similar to the early par 5s, the women face three par 3s on the front nine.

The front nine takes you away from the clubhouse at RL&SA. The 9th green and 10th tee are the furthest points from the locker rooms. A majority of those opening holes travel east. Make the turn, and you head west for six of the closing nine. Keep in mind the wind direction. Players are going to score on the front. The single par four that travels west in the opening stretch is also the shortest. There are two par 5s on the front nine and both will play downwind. Avoid the 97 fairway bunkers, and you'll be in position to attack early. Yes, there are 97 fairway bunkers, and 168 bunkers total! Off the tee and on approach, this will be an accuracy contest. We will take a deeper dive into the historic men's and women's leaderboards in the outright section, but when you really look at the landscape, the variety of shots required really stands out. Much of the variety stems from the conditions. Women have won the AIG Open at Royal Lytham at 17 under and four over par. That's quite a differential for a course that has not fundamentally changed since it hosted its first Open Championship in 1926.

How to win?

There have been five AIG Women’s Open played at RL&SA and 11 Men's Open Championships. Take a look at this Hall of Fame list of past champions.

• Women: 1998 - Sherri Steinhauer (+4), 2003 - Annika Sorenstam (-10), 2006 - Sherri Stenhauer (-7), 2009 - Catriona Matthew (-3), 2018 - Georgia Hall (-17)
• Men: 1926 - Bobby Jones (291), 1952 - Bobby Locke (-1), 1958 - Peter Thomson (-6), 1963 - Bob Charles (-7), 1969 - Tony Jacklin (-4), 1974 - Gary Player (-2), 1979 - Seve Ballesteros (-1), 1988 - Seve Ballesteros (-11), 1996 - Tom Lehman (-13), 2001 - David Duval (-10), 2012 - Ernie Els (-7)

One interesting footnote, since World War II, Royal Lytham and St. Annes is the only Open venue to have two English winners. Uniquely, they are a man (Jacklin) and a woman (Hall). Hall's closing 67 on Sunday was impressive in 2018. Georgia opened with six birdies in the first 16 holes. Hitting 15 of 18 GIRs in the final round and 71% across four rounds of the championship was an important key to her victory. It's important to note the course played as a par 72 in 2018. One less 5 on the card this time around, approach accuracy from long range becomes even more important. The best approach player on the LPGA is Haeran Ryu hitting over 80% of her GIRs. The second-ranked player hits 72% of her GIRs, and the number one player Nelly Korda registers 73%. With 71 greenside bunkers and that list of past champions, I'm leaning heavily on approach play for this championship. Not just from the fairway, but from everywhere. We all saw how dry the fescue/rough was at Royal Birkdale, well it will be the same here.
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Royal Lytham and St. Annes has always been one of the tougher driving tests in the Rota. Players are staring at nearly 100 bunkers from the tee box across 18 holes. Hitting those landmine holes, players are often forced to play out short of the green and left trying to scramble and save par. Two points to consider here. First, we are looking at Total Driving. Who are the longest and most accurate players on tour. Power will be an incredible asset on those closing holes heading back into the wind. Three of the final five holes are par 4s measuring over 420 yards. And in many cases, the longer players can carry some of the sand trouble off the tee. The average par 5 is 532 yards making all three reachable by the longest ladies. Sorenstam, Duval, Els were all great drivers of the golf ball. Two of them were multiple US Open winners. RL&SA presents a plethora of trouble off the tee, the winner will stay out of it.
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With what feels like an infinite number of bunkers, scrambling becomes a factor. The cut in 2018 was 1 over par. The leader after 36 holes was 10 under par. Bogey avoidance is always a key factor in this championship. Hall only made three bogeys in 2018. A stellar short game can save your championship campaign. The best major contenders control their birdie-to-bogey ratio. These are annually the hardest courses the women play. You can also throw Shadow Creek and maybe one or two other regular-season venues. Who plays well when the challenge goes up a notch? The LPGA has played three major championships in the last six scheduled starts. Who contends? When you look closely at those leaderboards, there's a very specific storyline taking place. Those consistent contenders can scramble. They can chip, pitch, and putt. Not one player in the field has finished in the top 10 for all three (Ryu did win two), but how many have two top 3 finishes like Brooke Henderson? Henderson, always known as a ball striker, has been saving significant pars as well.
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The English coastline links venues have generic greens. They must, because if the wind blows, too many swales and slopes and they would become unplayable. Putting flat greens in is not hard, and it will bring more players into the winner’s conversation. The biggest challenge from a putting perspective is knowing who putts well in the Open. Putting stats on the LPGA are generated from fast, undulating greens in Asia and America. Comparatively speaking, these are flat and slow. I've combed through the relevant leaderboards to find the best British Isles putters. If we are stressing scrambling, making everything inside 8' is a part of that equation. I won't lean heavily on the flatstick in comparison to ball striking. Open putting is hard to predict. Sticking with good form will count, but not as much as those who have proven they can putt in these major starts and across the Atlantic.
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With 11 par 4s and a closing stretch of six in a row, par 4 scoring is important. Not many venues the ladies face have quite the variety RL&SA offers. Six of the 11 par 4s are under 400 yards in length. The average par 4 is 392 yards. That's short for major championship standards. Possessing the ability to score with a wedge in hand on these short fours and a long iron or hybrid on the late (into the wind) final 4s will be crucial. This is going to be a complete test. The most well-rounded players are the best par 4 scorers. A simple edge that always allows our outrights to contend on the right courses. Scrambling includes bunker play, but I've also pulled that stat out and taken into consideration who specifically handles the sand. It would be an amazing feat to play 72 holes and not find a bunker this week. At some point, the sand will come into the equation, and I want players who can play from it.
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Since Nelly took home her second major championship of the season, it has been a new name taking center stage: Haeran Ryu. The KPMG Women's PGA was her first major, and not only was the 2018 Women's Open Georgia Hall's first major championship, it was her first win! We have a number of brilliant ball strikers in this field, and they will contend. Our winner will be the one who can handle the heat similar to Jackson Koivun on Sunday. I've taken into account recent form in major championships. That's my final player characteristic to consider. The ability to perform when it matters most. Few in this field have proven it, and those women are where I'm focused for the outright card.

Outright Winners - AIG Women's Open

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