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Thursday, Round 1

"This is my fifth day here. Monday was my first round of links golf, so I've played 27 holes before I played the first round today. I've never been to Europe." - Jackson Suber

So much for links golf experience..?

Round 1 concluded at approximately 10:00 p.m. local time in Southport. The first tee time was 6:35 a.m. A mere 15+ hours of golf were played on Thursday! The morning wave took advantage of perfect Open Championship conditions, registering almost a full stroke advantage over the afternoon players. Our leader, Jackson Suber, went out and made six birdies and an eagle, posting a 65 on his card. Looming one shot back are Bryson DeChambeau and Cameron Young. Between the two of them, they combined to hit 10 of 28 fairways. Can they continue to score with that level of inaccuracy? If the R&A keeps watering these greens, maybe they will. Here's a quick recap of Thursday's action.

Round 1 summary:

  • Leader: -5, Jackson Suber (65)
    • There are 38 players under par after 18-holes.
  • Scoring average:
    • Rd 1: +1.44
    • First nine scoring average: +0.87 (+0.3), back nine: +0.57
    • Morning wave: +1.00, afternoon wave: +1.87 (+0.87)
    • Hardest hole: #6 +0.35, easiest hole: #17 -0.31
    • The field of 156 players scored 4 eagles, 402 birdies, 520 bogeys, and 54 double bogeys or worse in Round 1.
  • Strokes gained T2G leaders through one round:
    • Bryson DeChambeau, Ben Griffin, Henrik Stenson, Jon Rahm, Ryan Gerard, Chris Gotterup, Sungjae Im, Scottie Scheffler, Jordan Smith, Jackson Suber
  • Betting favorites after Round 1:
    • Scheffler (+450), Young (+1050), DeChambeau (+1275), MacIntyre (+1500), Morikawa (+1500)
  • Conditions: Round 1's weather featured mostly sunny skies with temperatures peaking around 82 degrees. Winds from the east to northeast at eight to 14 mph, occasionally gusting up to 20 mph.

Course Conditions, Weather, Wind

The temperature will drop in Round 2 to a high of 73 degrees. There is no precipitation in the forecast, and the wind will be mild in the morning, remaining in the single digits out of the east. In the afternoon, the breeze will once again shift out of the northwest and increase to 14-16 mph with gusts approaching 20 to 22 mph by 4:00 p.m. local time.

Observations:

Between the lines...

  • The golf course favored accuracy on Thursday. With that in mind, approach or iron play strongly correlated to scoring success. We thought that coming in, and it turned out to be true. Here are the best SG: APP players of Round 1.
    • Collin Morikawa, Henrik Stenson, Keegan Bradley, Kristoffer Reitan, Ben Griffin, Rasmus Hรธjgaard, Francesco Molinari, Ryan Gerard
  • "I think you've got to be a lot more strategic out on the golf course. I feel like I did a really good job today of being incredibly strategic and focused super hard on placing it in the right places." - Bryson DeChambeau reacting to Round 1.
  • Bryson DeChambeau caught plenty of criticism from the media leading into this tournament. Some of it was deservedly so, as DeChambeau was on the line for a clean sweep of major missed cuts in 2026. As one of the most tactical and calculated players in the history of the game, it was shortsighted to doubt DeChambeau's ability to thoughtfully traverse Royal Birkdale. None were better than Bryson from tee-to-green on Thursday, and now he's put himself in the driver's seat to chase a second consecutive top-10 finish at The Open. - John Haslbauer
  • "Yeah. I'll start with the positives. I drove the ball incredibly well. I took the golf course on off the tee. Obviously with the positions that I put myself in off the tee, I feel like I obviously should have shot a better score." - Rory McIlroy assessing his day.
  • Rory was ranked second in SG: OTT, but 148th with his putter. As you will see by this list, putting was very helpful for Jackson Suber and Alex Smalley. Can the other contenders hold on with an average flastick? Here are the guys gaining the most strokes on the greens after Round 1.
    • Alex Smalley, Bud Cauley, Jackson Suber, Sami Valimaki, JT Poston. Min Woo Lee, Matthew Southgate
  • Twenty-three players stand within 3 strokes of the lead after the opening round. Just 6 of those players had an afternoon tee time on Thursday. All told, the scoring average was nearly a full stroke more difficult for the afternoon wave than the morning wave. The weather is not always fair in Open Championships. With the exact same forecast in store for Friday, expect the early wave to get their revenge and capitalize on calm morning conditions before afternoon coastal winds pick up. - John Haslbauer

Will the scoring flip on Friday? I agree with John and think there will be a definite chasers mentality in the morning looking at the forecast. If a few of your favorites were slightly off in the PM wave Thursday, stay patient. As England learned yesterday with the lead, this event is far from over...

Live Betting - The Open Championship

Friday card:

  • V. Perez over J. Smith (-120 DK)
  • V. Hovland over J. Thomas (-124 DK)
  • S. Kim over B. DeChambeau (-118 DK)

* - Odds can change from site to site. Make sure you shop around before making each bet. Even though a bet is listed, it may have changed since the newsletter was published. FanDuel (FD), Caesars (CS), DraftKings (DK), BetMGM (BM), bet365 (B3), Bet Rivers (BR), ESPNBet (EB), Fanatics (FA)



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