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We start on Wednesday

Week four of the PGA TOUR season takes us to another familiar place, Torrey Pines and the Farmers Insurance Open. One of the finest 36-hole facilities in the country, don't be distracted by her beauty. Set upon the cliffs overlooking the Pacific Ocean, the South Course is the longest layout on TOUR. Built to be brutally difficult, the best ball strikers in our field of 156 players have a decided advantage. The purse is up just slightly to $9.3 million and the winner's check as well, $1.67 million. The top 65 and ties make it to Friday after the field plays one round on each of the North and South Courses.

Oddly, both Xander Schauffele and Collin Morikawa have withdrawn pre-tournament. What was once the "unofficial" start to the season when Tiger started his schedule has become an event lost in the shuffle. Set on the calendar one week before a three week stretch of two signature events and the WM Phoenix Open, this event needs a serious re-boot. The courses will command our attention all weekend, but they are brutal on the players. Just seven of the top 25 in the OWGR are here.

We will find an edge and contend, but I also want to make you aware of the "Genesis situation." The PGA TOUR announced last week that the Genesis Invitational at Riviera Country Club would be moved due to the tragic wildfires plaguing Los Angeles. Both Torrey Pines and PGA West have been mentioned as alternative venues. Keep an extra eye on the competition as I have a strong feeling we will be back here in three weeks with a much different field.

Watch the video ⤵️

SHOW time

This Thursday afternoon, the Golf Pro Betting Show will be broadcast live from the PGA Merchandise Show in Orlando, Florida. 31,000 people, 1,000 vendors, and over 900 media will be in the Orange County Convention Center surrounding the stage. The show will be a live cut sweat discussion on the Farmers with a celebrity guest. Matt and I joined forces over a year ago, and this invite to perform in the middle of the convention floor is very cool. We are the only golf betting show to take the stage ALL WEEK! Make sure you watch on X, Instagram or YouTube Thursday afternoon at 3:00pm! The link will be in our social feed.

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Town owned and operated

🚨We start on Wednesday this week, be prepared to get your bets in one day earlier than usual. Torrey Pines has not felt substantial rain since last spring. Much like their neighbors up north who are being devastated by horrific wildfires, southern California is in the midst of a historic drought. We've seen a firm and fast Torrey at the US Open and those same conditions will be the determining factor for who will contend and win this week. Thankfully, these players will only have dry four inch rough to deal with, but this place is going to be a brick. Our forecast calls for cooler temperatures as well. Thursday looks like the warmest day reaching the mid-70s. Each day starts out in the high 40s, and this is a full field event. Bring your beanie to that 6:40 am tee time boys!

We have a slight chance of showers on Saturday, but that's the final round. Wednesday through Friday could get windy in the afternoon. Torrey sits on a bluff above the ocean, so local internet weather won't do the wind prediction any justice. The forecast calls for 10 mph winds, but we know there will be more. Based upon the arid conditions, Torrey is going to play even tougher than usual. The average cutline over the last decade is two under par. Average winning score in that time period, 13 under par. This ball striker's paradise will present a new wrinkle with dry conditions.

Keith's Keys 🗞️ A couple of key skills you can claim as your own at the water cooler and cocktail party conversations. You can find complete explanations for each in the betting breakdown. 200+: Nine of the top 10 approach players last year finished inside the top 25. You want to contend at Torrey, bring your iron game. Top Gun: Located just next to Tom Cruise's famous movie home, high ball hitters have an advantage across the North and South Courses. Throw in the dry conditions and this will be the deciding skill factor. ARG for me: Big bounces will cause more missed greens than usual. Be prepared to have your contenders use their short game more than. usual in La Jolla.

Torrey week involves two courses. The field will play one round on the North and the South courses prior to the 36-hole cut for the top 65 and ties Thursday night. Those making the cut then move to the South Course for the final 36-holes. The South is the US Open venue so why don't we start there. The longest course on TOUR at 7,765 yards, the scorecard features four par 3s (average 208 yards), four par 5s (average 593 yards), and 10 par 4s (average 456 yards). I think you get the picture. Length AND accuracy are a huge advantage here. This is not an official "team no-putt" week, but you can definitely contend here on straight ball striking.

The best “compression competitors” in this field for long iron approaches and strokes gained off the tee in their last 24 rounds are:

• Luke Clanton, Kurt Kitayama, Gary Woodland, Mac Meissner, Lee Hodges, Michael Kim, Joseph Bramlett, Hideki Matsuyama, JJ Spaun, and Taylor Pendrith.

The Farmers Insurance Open starts in...

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I like to present you all with a brief list that accurately defines what we are looking for. Throw in recent past champions like Matthieu Pavon, Max Homa, Luke List, and there's no doubt we are on the right track. The North Course is the easier of the two. Last year it played about 2.5 strokes under par while the South played .4 over par. If your lineups and betting card aren't performing on the North in round one or two, then you better start paying attention to the live betting markets. The North Course does have a brutal set of par 3s, but otherwise the place to score. The average green size is bigger, the par 5s are shorter, and you have bentgrass greens which roll better along the bluffs.

The South in comparison is just a brute. Eighty-two bunkers, 5,000 sq/ft greens, and covered in bumpy Poa Annua. Although those bumps will flatten out this year under the firm and fast conditions. Just 20 acres of fairway across this monster, the best ball strikers once again excel. With that in mind, let's move on to the betting breakdown. After all, don't forget we start one day earlier this week!

Tumble dry

At first glance, a dry Torrey might sound appealing to the medium and shorter length hitters. I'm not sure that's the case. If the average length players get longer, then the bombers get longer too. I'm leaning heavily on accuracy this week to build out our betting card. I love the length factor, but hitting fairways and greens will keep you out of trouble. Speaking of trouble, Torrey's test has never been much of an around the green contest. Over the last decade, SG:ARG ranked lowest in average gains of the four main categories. I believe that will be different in this edition. Torrey presents more long iron approaches than any other non-major TOUR stop. Holding greens from long range will be near impossible.

As a result, players will be forced to score from close range saving par and scrambling on the par 5s for birdies. I bring this up first because most pundits won't predict short game as a factor. They will stick with the length and long iron annual Torrey mindset. By paying attention to the course conditions, I believe there's a significant edge. Ball flight is my second priority. I want players who can launch it high. Holding these greens is going to be a challenge and the high ball hitters will have a distinct advantage. By walking on-site with these guys over the past three years, I know who can hit that trajectory.

That attribute goes hand in hand with favoring the best long iron players. That 200+ yard approach category was never more valuable for par 4s scoring than the South Course. You'll see some leaders go deep on the North in either round one or two and build a lead but just wait until the final two rounds. Pay attention to the par 3 numbers on the North. Those guys are the ones prepared to play the South. Once final 36 starts on the South, your really good approach players always climb the leaderboard. Six of the last 10 winners have gained over 4.5 strokes on approach and most of those gains came from long range.

The 4s are brutal at Torrey. That's why par 5 scoring becomes a significant separating stat. Like we always say, survive the par 3s and score on the 5s. That blueprint holds true, and we have some great par 5 scorers on our card. Scoring on the 5s starts with great driving. The conditions might be slightly different this year, but it is still Torrey Pines. The best SG:OTT players have a serious advantage off the tee. Let's not lose sight of the obvious skill even as we change a couple of our Torrey characteristics for 2025's edition.

Putting has become more and more of an influence in recent years. All five of the most recent winners have gained 3.7 strokes or more on the greens. If you go back 6-10 years ago; none of them gained more than two! This can be a misleading stat this week. Unlike a birdiefest, most of those gains are coming from inside 10' on these bumpy Poa greens. You can remember several highlights over the years of guys three and four putting from six feet and in. It happens at Torrey and having a steady putter from close range is important.

The par ranges for Torrey are pretty true to your scorecard first impression. The par 3s are brutal across both courses and require tremendous long iron acumen. The par 5 range may surprise you, but that is where the guys separate: the par 5s on the North Course. Finally, the 4s are just massive. Climb the leaderboard by scoring on the 450+ 4s and you'll be in the mix on Sunday Saturday afternoon.

• Par 3: 225+
• Par 4: 450-500
• Par 5: 500-550

We finished second at The Sentry firing 32 under par. Two guys in the top 11 entered Sunday at the Sony and we failed to close. Last week, Max Greyserman led the field in approach. It's going to be a wild week starting tonight with TGL and Torrey tomorrow. Get ready to take our tickets to the window.

Outright Winners - Farmers Insurance Open

He's the best player in the field from long range. Ludvig Åberg is ranked sixth in the world and still trending higher. With Scottie and Xander on the sidelines for the foreseeable future, watch what this kid does with a little open space at the top. Ludvig Åberg +1100

Quietly striking the ball beautifully week after week, JJ Spaun is back in his native state of California ready for a real tough test. Much like his win at Valero, Spaun needs a tough track to eliminate two-thirds of the field. Torrey is a great fit and provides JJ with Poa to putt on; his best surface. JJ Spaun +5500

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Inside the ropes at the 2023 Genesis Invitational

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